How to choose between competing offers

You worked for months, ran four loops, negotiated hard, and now you have two offers. The easy instinct is to pick the bigger number. The right instinct is to spend an honest afternoon comparing them across the factors that actually compound over 2–3 years — because that's the timeframe over which this decision pays off or hurts you.

Here's the 6-factor scorecard I use (and coach candidates to use) for offers at senior and staff levels. It takes about an hour. It's worth it.

Factor 1 — Total comp, not just base

Most candidates compare base salaries. That's half the picture. Break total comp into four components and compare apples to apples:

• Base salary (guaranteed, liquid, compounds into every future raise)
• Sign-on bonus (one-time; usually clawed back if you leave in year one)
• Annual bonus target (budget; assume actual is 70% of target at an average company)
• Equity (value × vesting schedule × risk discount)

Factor 2 — Growth trajectory (3-year view)

In 3 years, which role has a higher chance of making you a better operator in a better position? This is usually more important than the year-one number.

• What's the average tenure at this level? Short = more promotion opportunity, or high burn?
• Who's been promoted from this level in the last 18 months? Ask the hiring manager directly.
• What's the company's trajectory (revenue, hiring, market position)?
• Is the scope of the role growing, steady, or shrinking?

Factor 3 — The manager question

Your first manager at a new company determines your experience more than the brand on your CV. Ask yourself: did I come away from my interviews excited to work with them, or just neutral?

Factor 4 — Team and work style fit

You will do your best work on teams where you can naturally be yourself. Think about the interviewers you met — were they energizing, or draining? Was decision-making the style you want? Was the tone collaborative, political, or somewhere in between?

• Pace — is it a sprint culture, a marathon culture, a burnout culture?
• Decision-making — who makes calls? By consensus, by the manager, by a council?
• Meeting load — are there 5 meetings a day, or 5 a week?
• Async / in-person balance — does this match the way you do your best work?

Factor 5 — Risk analysis

Both offers come with risk. Not naming the risk is the risk.

Startup risk

• What's their runway? (Funding raised / monthly burn)
• Who's on the board? Who's their CEO's previous company?
• What are the last 2 quarters' growth numbers? Ask.
• Do they rely on one big customer? One big channel?

Big-company risk

• Is this org being rationalized — rolling layoffs in the last 12 months?
• Is the team shipping meaningful product, or is it in maintenance?
• How many reorgs has this team been through in 2 years?
• Is the business unit growing or being sunset?

Factor 6 — The deal-breaker layer

Before scoring, name your 2–3 non-negotiables. These are the things that would make you decline even if the offer were otherwise amazing.

If either offer violates a non-negotiable, stop. The scorecard is irrelevant. Reject that one.

The scorecard

Score each offer 1–5 on each factor. Weight each factor by how much you personally care about it (another 1–5). Multiply. Add. The higher total usually wins. If they're within 10%, your gut is the tie-breaker — and your gut is actually informed by real signals at this point.

When to say no to both

Sometimes neither offer is right, and the real decision is to wait. Reasons it's the right call:

• Both offers hit your comp floor but neither excites you about the work
• You were scared into applying by layoffs, not pulled by real interest
• You have >3 months of runway and a healthy pipeline elsewhere
• Saying yes to either means taking a step down in scope — and the market isn't forcing that

It's professional to decline. Send warm, brief messages: "Thank you so much for the offer. After careful thought, I've decided this isn't the right fit for me right now. I'd love to stay in touch." Burn zero bridges.

After you accept

Once you've decided, don't look back. Decline the other offer within 24 hours, in writing, graciously. Inform your current employer on the timeline you committed to. And spend the break (if you have one) recovering, because the onboarding you're about to walk into will need you full-energy.

The last thing: the decision you made was correct — because you made it with the information you had and the priorities you have now. Six months in, the only way to prove it right is to show up fully for the choice. That's what the scorecard was really for.